قياس وتحليل العلاقة الديناميكية بين متغيرات الاقتصاد الكلي و أداء سوق الأوراق المالية دراسة حالة سوق عمان للأوراق المالية خلال - الفترة 1990 - 2020

Abstract

This study mainly aims at testing and estimating the dynamic relationship between the selected macroeconomic variables and the performance of the Amman Stock Exchange in the short and long terms, by building a standard model based on the Autoregressive Distributed Deceleration (ARDL) methodology. For annual time series data for the period from 1990 to 2020. The study used “inflation rate, interest rate, money supply, exchange rate, and economic growth” as independent variables, and “market value index as a percentage of GDP” as a dependent variable. The exchange rate was dropped from the study model because it is related to the inflation rate, due to the policy of fixing the exchange rate of the Jordanian dinar against the US dollar since 1996 until the end of the study. The study found; There is a positive and significant effect of the rate of inflation and economic growth on the index of the market value of the Amman financial market in the short and long terms, and a negative and significant effect of the money supply and the interest rate on the index of the market value of the Amman financial market in the long term, while the significance of these two indicators was not proven on the value index market for the Amman Stock Exchange in the short term. Accordingly, the study recommends that investors in the Jordanian financial market need to monitor the macroeconomic environment and take its influential variables into account when making their investment decisions, so that the pricing of securities in the Amman Stock Exchange takes into account the information received about the changes that occur in these economic variables.