تقدير نموذج للتنبؤ بالمبيعات باستخدام الأساليب الرياضية الضبابية دراسة حالة المديرية العملياتية لاتصالات الجزائر ولاية أولاد جلال

Abstract

The study aims to use the fuzzy time series to forecast the sales of land line internet connection in the Operational Directorate of Algeria Telecom in the Wilaya of Ouled Djellal. In order to answer the questions of the study and conduct its practical, I use the fuzzy time series method by applying each of Chen and Chen's work methods in estimating the sales of the researched organization. A new method of forecasting was also proposed by using the general trend method modified by seasonal factors instead of the general trend method in the Chen method. The three methods were applied to the monthly data the researched organization from 2015 to 2022, in addition to the application the general trend method modified by seasonal factors on actual data. And the prediction accuracy measures (MAD, MSE, MAPE) were relied upon in order to compare the seven models obtained of the previous methods. Hence, the study found the accuracy and effectiveness of product model resulting from the application of the proposed method and we obtained the absolute percentage measurement standard MAPE equal to 20.36% less than other models.