SCENARIOS DES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES POUR LES PRECIPITATIONS ET LES TEMPERATURES EN AFRIQUE SUBSAHARIENNE TROPICALE HUMIDE : CAS DU BASSIN VERSANT DE DAVO, COTE D’IVOIRE

Abstract

Like Sub-Saharan countries, the Ivory Coast is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on precipitation and temperatures for 2050 and 2080 horizons in the Davo watershed located in southwestern of Ivory Coast. Four Atmospheric/Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) A2 and B2 were used to create a range of plausible scenarios. All projections show an increase in temperature. Under the A2 scenario the average model prediction of warming is 1.7 ° C and 3.1 ° C across the two periods while, the precipitation will increase by -0.4% to 3%. Under the B2 scenario, the average model prediction of warming is less important than under scenario A2. Under the B2 scenario, precipitation will experience an increase of 2.4 % and 3.7 % across the two time slice. The B2 scenario is wetter and less hot than the A2 scenario.