2022 -1990 أثر المتغيرات االقتصادية الكلية على نمو اإلنفاق العام في الجزائر- دراسة قياسي للفترة

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and measure the bilateral relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and the growth of public spending in Algeria during the period (1990-2022) in the long and short terms, in addition to determining the direction of the causal relationship between the variables under study, where public spending was relied upon as a variable. continued, and (Inflation rate, money supply, unemployment rate, economic growth, oil prices) as independent variables. This is done using the principal components method and the distributed lag autoregressive model (ARDL). The results obtained from annual data via a test (ARDL),There is a positive and significant impact for both Money supplyM2,Unemployment, per capita GDP and oil prices affect public expenditure growth in Algeriain Long term And a negative and significant effect of the inflation rate The study also found a positive and significant effect for both the inflation and unemployment rates On the growth of public spending In the short term, while the signifiance of the money supply has not been provenM2, GDP per capita, and oil prices, at a significance level of 10%,Causality tests also showed(Granger)That there is a bidirectional causal relationship between the money supply rate and public spending, and a unidirectional causal relationship of; Inflation rate, unemployment, per capita GDP, and oil prices to public spending