دراسة العلاقة بين رصيد الديزان التجاري و رصيد الديزانية العامة للدولة - دراسة حالة الجزائر1990 2022

Abstract

This study aims to clarify the nature of the relationship between the balance of the trade balance and the balance of the general state budget in Algeria during the period 1990-2022, by building a standard model that expresses this relationship to us using the autoregressive distributed gaps (ARDL) methodology, where the study used the balance of the general budget as a variable. Independent, and the trade balance balance as a dependent variable, in addition to using the variables the real effective exchange rate and the per capita GDP as independent explanatory variables. The study concluded that there is a direct relationship between the balance of the general budget and the trade balance in the long run, whereby whenever the balance of the general budget increases by 1%, the balance of the trade balance increases by 2.37%, and that there is a direct relationship between the balance of the general budget and the trade balance in the short run. Where the balance of the general budget increases by 1%, the balance of the trade balance increases by 1.72%, in addition to the existence of a direct relationship between the real effective exchange rate and the per capita GDP and the trade balance in the long run, and the presence of a positive effect of the real effective exchange rate on the balance of the balance. Trade in the short term, but it is insignificant and therefore there is no effect of the exchange rate on the trade balance balance in the short term. There is a direct relationship between the per capita GDP and the trade balance in the short run, and this result is identical to the direction of the relationship between the per capita GDP and the trade balance in the long run.