اثر تقلبات اسعار البترول على اداء الاسواق المالية العربية دراسة حالة السوق المالي السعودي بين 2000الى2018

Abstract

This study aimed to measure and analyze the impact of oil price fluctuations on the performance indicators of Arab financial markets, by identifying the nature of these markets and analyzing their development during the period from 2000 to 2018, identifying the most important fluctuations in global oil prices, and the status of the petroleum industry in Arab countries, and then identifying the most important theoretical approaches and mechanisms through which oil price fluctuations can affect the behavior and performance of Arab financial markets. To measure this impact, a standard study of oil price fluctuations on the performance of the Saudi Arabian financial market was conducted. The study included the main independent variable "Saudi Arabian Light Crude Oil Price" as a standard for global oil prices - since it is a reference price for the OPEC basket, which is considered the most important reference for pricing oil in the world - and adding other macroeconomic variables as additional independent variables that explain the model, represented by (inflation rate, interest rates on deposits (3 months), money supply in its broad sense, and real gross domestic product), in addition to choosing the dependent variables represented by "the general index of the Saudi financial market TASI, the market value index, the index of the value of traded shares, "Stock Turnover Index" as indicators expressing the performance of the Saudi financial market, and in order for the study results to be more accurate, quarterly data for the period from 2000 to 2018 were used for all study variables. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was chosen to test the relationship between the variables in the long and short term, as the time series stability tests showed that the study variables are stable either at the level or at the first difference. Through the (ARDL) model, the study concluded that there is a positive effect of the spot price of Arab Light crude oil on the performance of the general index and the market value index of the Saudi financial market in the long term, and there was a significant negative effect in the short term of the spot price of Arab Light crude oil on the performance of both indices, while there was no significant effect in either the short term or the long term of the spot price of Arab Light crude oil on the value of traded shares and the stock turnover rate in the Saudi financial market, meaning that the fluctuations in the spot price of Arab Light crude oil do not explain the changes that occurred in the index of the value of traded shares or the stock turnover rate. It can be said that the indexes of the value of traded shares and the stock turnover rate do not express the state of the Saudi financial market in light of the fluctuations in oil prices. While the effects of macroeconomic variables (inflation rate, interest rates on deposits (3 months), broad money supply, and real GDP) on the performance indicators of the Saudi financial market varied between no effect at all, or positive or negative effect in the short and long term.