دور الاستثمار الاجنبي في نقل الازمات الاقتصادية من دولة الى اخرى

Abstract

This dissertation aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the role of foreign investments in transmitting economic crises across national borders, focusing on the mechanisms that contribute to the spread of financial and trade shocks between countries. The study seeks to explain how foreign investments can shift from being a driver of economic growth to a channel for transmitting economic crises, leading to what is known as "crisis contagion." The research relies on a comprehensive analytical framework that combines quantitative and qualitative methodologies to offer a more precise understanding of this phenomenon. From a methodological perspective, the study integrates descriptive, analytical, and historical approaches to explore theories related to foreign investments and economic crises. It also includes an econometric study using the VECM model, impulse response function (IRF), and variance decomposition (VD) analysis during the 2008 global financial crisis. The study covers the period from 2000 to 2012 and includes 10 countries. This dual approach provides a holistic view of crisis transmission across countries and examines the role of economic and financial factors in these dynamics. The empirical analysis using the VECM model indicates the presence of a long-term relationship between economic growth and both types of foreign investments. Indirect investments played a crucial role in amplifying and transmitting the shock of the 2008 global financial crisis to other economies through sharp fluctuations in portfolio investment flows and foreign bank credit. In contrast, foreign direct investment (FDI) proved to be more stable and persistent, contributing only minimally to fluctuations while maintaining a moderately positive long-term impact on growth. The study offers valuable insights for policymakers, recommending enhanced international and regional cooperation to monitor financial and trade flows more effectively and mitigate the risks associated with economic contagion. Furthermore, the findings highlight the importance of developing early warning systems for financial crises, which could help reduce the impact of crises on both emerging and advanced economies