Etude de la persistance de la sécheresse au niveau de sept plaines algériennes par utilisation des chaînes de Markov (1930-2003)

Abstract

Algeria and in particular the North West region has known a several droughts during the last century. The latter was characteristic by its intensity and its impact on water resources and crop yields. Using the Markov Chan to study the dependence onf interannual rainfall at different scales, we found that there is a high tendency to have a dry year after year considered as dry in the west plains comparing to the plains of the center of the country. In winter, spring and at the annual scale, ther's every chance that to have a dry year not followed by years not dry (more than 50%).